S&P 500 Index Weekly Forecast: Shares Stay Robust, Suez Nonetheless Caught!

  • Inflation worries are easing as Fed officials stick to the dovish topic.
  • Oil flies while the Suez remains blocked.
  • Stocks close the week in the green but big tech battle.

Stocks close well on Friday to cap a solid week of gains for the broader indices. The S&P 500 ended the week ahead 1.57%, the Dow is positive for the week, up 1.36%, but the Nasdaq is behind, down 0.59% for the week.

Big Tech has had a sluggish time as rotation continues into more cyclical stocks. Financial stocks were helped on Friday when the Federal Reserve said it would lift restrictions on dividends and buybacks in June. The S&P 500 set a record high, not a record high, as it ended St. Patrick & # 39; s Day by half a point!

Meme stocks resumed the narrative Thursday, seeing massive gains of over 50% for Gamestop and KOSS and nearly 30% for AMC.

SPAC suffered as the SEC examined some of the recent SPAC deals. CCIV ended the week at $ 23.02.

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There were a number of positive data on Friday to boost sentiment. The Personal Consumer Expenditures (PCE) deflator helped ease inflation fears and Michigan consumer sentiment data showed continued growth. The US 10-year return remained below 1.7% as Fed officials continued their low-key statements throughout the week.

The dollar remained strong and took out another large number during the week to trade on a 1.17 handle. Interest rate differentials and the EU's economic and vaccination problems remain the main drivers of the strong dollar.

Oil prices rose on Friday despite the strength of the dollar and headwinds from EU demand. The ongoing blockade of the Suez Canal and rumors that OPEC + did not increase production in April drove oil up 4% to $ 60.81 on Friday. The contango effect also subsided over the course of the week.

S&P 500 weeks in advance

Stocks have struggled this week but are still making progress, albeit slowly. The fundamentals also favor higher prices in the coming week. Bank of America's cash flow data this week was bearish, with near-record inflows into short-term government coffers and cash. This will return as long as stocks can remain bid and returns are under control. The economic reviews have not yet fully found their way into the market, and President Biden's infrastructure plan is also propping up industrials. Despite stretched valuations, the rally could continue for a while.

This weekend in Europe the clocks will move one hour forward until daylight saving time. GMT +1 for the UK, GMT +2 for Europe.

Monday The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index appears at 17.2 for February. There are also 3- and 6-month invoicing auctions on Monday. Federal Reserve Member Christopher Waller speaks at 1100EST / 1500GMT.

On TuesdayUS consumer confidence data is expected to continue to improve as stimulus testing and reopening flow to consumers.

Europe publishes German CPI, but European inflation is not currently a focus for stock markets.

Wednesday has mortgage applications and Chicago PMI. The PMI is expected to hit 60.3, up from 59. President Biden will also speak on Wednesday.

Thursday closes the short Easter week with ISM manufacturing data. The focus will be on the "New Orders" component and the PMI. The PMI is expected to increase further to 61.2. Construction spending is also off on Thursday but is still showing no improvement as the lockdown is still affecting the number. Next month will be more important.

OPEC will also meet on Thursday. Therefore, pay attention to comments on the offer. Hopefully the Suez Canal will be open by then!

Earnings due

blackberry published the results on Tuesday. One of the Meme stocks is expected to have earnings per share of $ 0.03 and revenue of $ 246.36 million.

Lululemon Athletica Also released Tuesday, it expects earnings per share of $ 2.49 and sales of $ 1.66 billion.

McCormick & Co. The first quarter releases early, with expected earnings per share of $ 0.58 and revenue of $ 1.37 billion.

Walgreens Boots Alliance According to reports on Wednesday, earnings per share are expected to be $ 1.12 and revenue of $ 35.46 billion. Walgreens can comment on Covid vaccination rates as they participated.

Technical analysis of the S&P 500

The decision time is due on Monday. The S&P eventually rebounded on Friday to hit a record close and only miss the record high of March 17th. The 50-day moving average provided almost perfect support to start the rally on Thursday. Stimulus checks and investor funds should push stocks higher before the Easter break. Key assistance at 3851.

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